Only 4% of babies arrive on their due date — but the date still shapes every scan, test and decision for nine months.
A due date sounds like a deadline, but it is really a midpoint estimate. Only about 4% of babies actually arrive on their predicted date; the rest land within a 5-week window around it. Still, the calculation is one of the first things a pregnancy provider does — every scan, blood test and milestone is timed off it.
The most common formula is Naegele's rule, developed in the 1800s and still standard:
Due date = first day of last menstrual period + 280 days (40 weeks)
Equivalent shortcut: subtract 3 months from your last period and add 7 days.
Example. If your LMP began on 15 January 2026, due date = 22 October 2026.
Naegele assumes a 28-day cycle with ovulation on day 14. If your cycle is longer or shorter, the date shifts by the same number of days.
First-trimester ultrasound (6–13 weeks) is more accurate than LMP for due-date estimation — it measures the embryo's crown-rump length directly, with ±5–7 day accuracy. If LMP and ultrasound disagree by more than a week, providers usually go with the ultrasound.
By the third trimester, ultrasound dating is much less reliable (±3 weeks), because babies grow at different rates.
First trimester (weeks 1–13): - Major organ formation - Highest miscarriage risk (drops sharply after week 12) - Common symptoms: fatigue, nausea, breast tenderness
Second trimester (weeks 14–27): - Often the most comfortable - Anatomy scan around 20 weeks - Movement felt around 18–22 weeks
Third trimester (weeks 28–40): - Rapid weight gain (~0.5 kg/week) - Glucose screening for gestational diabetes - Group B strep test around 36 weeks - Pre-eclampsia and blood-pressure monitoring
What if I don't know my LMP? Early ultrasound (8–12 weeks) is the standard substitute.
Twins or higher-order multiples? Same calculation, but they typically deliver 2–4 weeks earlier and the due date is sometimes adjusted accordingly.
IVF pregnancies? Use the egg-retrieval or embryo-transfer date — far more accurate than LMP.
Can my due date change? Yes — most often after the first ultrasound. After 14 weeks, providers rarely move it.
How accurate is a calculated due date? ±5 days for ultrasound, ±10 days for LMP-only.
Should I plan for the due date exactly? No. Plan for the 38–42 week window. Arrange parental leave, hospital bag and birth partner availability accordingly.
Try our Pregnancy Due Date Calculator — it accepts LMP, ultrasound or IVF dates and gives a personalised trimester timeline.