Real vs Nominal Returns: The Inflation Sleight of Hand

Your savings account paid 4% last year. Inflation ran at 4%. You earned zero — and that is the polite version.

Calculators do the heavy lifting, but knowing what is going on underneath is what saves you money — or stress — later. Your savings account paid 4% last year. Inflation ran at 4%. You earned zero — and that is the polite version.

Nominal return

The headline number. What your statement shows.

Real return

Nominal minus inflation. The only number that buys things.

The 100-year baseline

US stocks have returned ~10% nominal, ~7% real. Bonds ~5% nominal, ~2% real. Cash ~0% real, often negative.

Pro tips

  • Always model retirement spending in today's dollars and apply a 3% inflation factor.
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) explicitly track real return — useful for retirees.

Frequently asked questions

Why don't headlines use real returns? Smaller numbers, harder to celebrate. Always do the inflation subtraction yourself.

What's a 'good' real return? 4–5% real annualised is excellent over 20+ years.

Whatever number you land on, sanity-check it against a second method or a quick estimate in your head.

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